April’15 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 9 April 2015 0
Bank for International Settlements has labelled the impact of recent European quantitative easing as “unprecedented”. Worrying effects are not only the negative interest rates, but also very high price volatilities of asset. This development may soon hit not only economic, but also legal and even (...)
March’15 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 13 March 2015 0
The ECB’s deal with Greece still leaves it exposed. Despite the rhetoric that countries must get their own finances in order, the ECB’s sister agency has started work on a new programme of $319 bn of mutualised debt. US banks all pass their stress tests. However, that is not necessarily (...)
February’15 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 14 February 2015 0
Is the standoff between the ECB and Greece in any sense subtle, or simply a car crash waiting to happen? We explain why being the first to defect may in fact benefit Greece. With low sympathy for formal (fiscal) debt forgiveness, we expect pressure to increase further on the ECB. Deutsche (...)
January’15 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 9 January 2015 0
Only two countries remain opposed to QE, although even they realise that measures about to be implemented are QE in all aspects but the name. Meanwhile, ground is being prepared for ECB to shift blame if “unconventional stimulus” ends up not working. Russian sanctions work. Or so we are led to (...)
December’14 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 11 December 2014 0
Despite the attention offered by the media to Russian banking and foreign exchange markets, tensions are growing in the ECB. Some ECB Board members are unconvinced of the stance the ECB President is taking, doubting that the introduced policy would be effective, let alone constitutional. We (...)
November’14 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 14 November 2014 0
The Asset Quality Review (Stress Test) results confirm system wide solvency. Yet, regulators announce the rewriting of bank risk models and the ECB plans large scale asset purchases. What we used to call "Money and Banking" has recently graphically facelifted into a "Financial and Fiscal (...)
October ’14 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Gordon Kerr, John Butler, with Enrico Colombatto 13 October 2014 0
Although Scotland voted in September to remain in the United Kingdom, both sides hailed the high voter turnout as recognition of democratic engagement and growing European dissatisfaction with over-centralised, bureaucratic, seemingly unaccountable government. The effect has been to raise (...)
September’14 Financial & Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Enrico Colombatto, Gordon Kerr, John Butler 10 September 2014 0
Low interest rates contribute to weak labour markets A new measure of Unemployment and Labour Market Conditions gains support at the Annual Jackson Hole Conference. Doubts continue about European QE as near-zero interest rates may actually be preventing employment from picking up. Concerns (...)
July’14 Financial and Fiscal Features Newsletter
by Enrico Colombatto, Gordon Kerr, John Butler 11 July 2014 0
BIS has doubts about monetary policy in the Euro area Latest BIS Report says that present monetary policies risk permanently destabilizing the global economy. It calls for A New Policy Compass, focussing on the ‘Financial Cycle’, not the Business Cycle. Banks remain fragile and imbalances (...)
June ’14 Newsletter
by Enrico Colombatto, Gordon Kerr, John Butler 19 June 2014 0
Central Banking Confidence in the ECB wobbles as commentators on all sides question the effectiveness of supposedly growth stimulating new policies. Markets and Investment At least two big takeover deals are being negotiated in Europe now, both with heavy government involvement. The (...)