https://en.irefeurope.org/publications/online-articles/article/what-game-theoretic-analysis-tells-us-about-the-possibility-that-the-actual-conflict-will-escalate/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-game-theoretic-analysis-tells-us-about-the-possibility-that-the-actual-conflict-will-escalate Independent research and policy analysis on fiscal, monetary, and regulatory issues in Europe Sat, 09 Apr 2022 08:18:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://en.irefeurope.org/publications/online-articles/article/what-game-theoretic-analysis-tells-us-about-the-possibility-that-the-actual-conflict-will-escalate/#comment-29211 Sat, 09 Apr 2022 08:18:55 +0000 https://en.irefeurope.org/?p=34347#comment-29211 Hi, it is an interesting approach to war prediction and escalation. The game theory depends heavily on gamers, their parameters and the decision process. It depends on the presupposed assertion that gamers have the aim of winning and not pursuing whatever it costs an ideology.
One can also predict an event using other probability theories.
Bayesian probability is one of them. In this case, it could have predicted the war and its escalation considering Tchenia and Syria precedent events.
In this setting, escalation is highly probable. Diplomacy will recurrently fail as it did during these recent months. An aleatory event leading to high-intensity confrontation comparable to the battle of Khasham (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham#:~:text=Battle%20of%20Khasham%20%2D%20Wikipedia) will probably occur. This probability is depending on the number of secret operations conducted in Ukraine by allied forces. However, the risks are greater. Indeed, as it is analyzed in this paper (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-killed-russians-in-syria-but-ukraine-stakes-are-different-2022-3) the situation of the invasion inside Europe tends to overweight some parameters as war crimes or using forbidden weapons.
It could be interesting to determine the model and calculate the Bayesian probability.

]]> https://en.irefeurope.org/publications/online-articles/article/what-game-theoretic-analysis-tells-us-about-the-possibility-that-the-actual-conflict-will-escalate/#comment-29210 Wed, 30 Mar 2022 15:17:18 +0000 https://en.irefeurope.org/?p=34347#comment-29210 Estas reflexiones son muy útiles para sostenernos todos en la paz Mundial, que genera para todos prosperidad y vida…

]]>