Banking

The European Commission’s forecasts are gloomy: a 0.1% decrease of European GDP in 2013 as a 0.4% decrease for the Eurozone. It seems that, one after the other, all the member states are collapsing and get trapped into economical disarray. The European Commission gives more time for France and Netherlands to reduce their deficits, but Slovenia is on the edge of explosion while Cyprus, Spain and Italy are very far from recovering. Europe has become the “Sick Man of the World”.

Bumpy springtime for the ECB: no recovery, another major blunder and more regulation. Times ahead are becoming increasingly hard as more EU countries are in trouble, new regulations are being introduced and banking and sovereign borrowing are difficult.

Prof. Enrico Colombatto (Turin), IREF scientific director, has provided his update on EU policies. This month, he describes sovereign bailouts, the probable change of monetary policies, and the repayment of ECB loans.

Domestic. How are the high profile struggling countries faring – Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland?

Despite the January media narrative that the worst of the crisis is over and the bailouts are working, the specific positions of the four countries challenge this position.

IREF has asked its scientific director, prof. Enrico Colombatto (Turin) to provide a periodic update on EU regulations. Policies adopted by Brussels in 2012 did not help to surmount the crisis: what will happen in 2013?

This is the expected revenue from the financial transaction tax promoted by the EU. The proposal is expected to come into effect from 1st January 2014 and applies to the transactions carried out by financial institutions (banks, investment firms, insurance undertakings, collective investment undertakings, etc.) acting as party to a transaction, either for their own account or for the account of other persons. Most financial instruments (securities, bonds, etc.) and derivatives thereof (such as options or swaps) will be covered by the tax.

If adopted as a new own resource of the EU budget the financial transaction tax (FTT) will significantly reduce the contributions of member states to the EU budget, according to estimates presented yesterday by the European Commission. Member States’ contributions would be slashed by €54bn in 2020.The Commission proposes that two thirds of the revenues of the FTT go to the EU budget, reducing by the same amounts Member States’ contributions based on their GNI, with the remaining one third being retained by Member States.

A widespread understanding of the 2007-2008 crisis places the origins of the crisis in a capture of global economy by the finance industry. The “occupy Wall Street” group would surely agree, as well as most of those who get their economics from the general media. And President Sarkozy in his recent Toulon’s speech did confirm the thesis. If this understanding is correct then it is natural to call for further regulation of the finance industry. But not everyone agrees, and some economists favor another understanding.