As Donald Trump settles into office for his second term, his administration has wasted no time pursuing one of its most hardline promises—mass deportations. With executive orders already in effect and military aircraft ferrying hundreds of detainees across borders, the White House touts the operation as the largest deportation effort in U.S. history and vowed to deport over 11 million undocumented immigrants.
While the rhetoric may resonate with some voters, the reality of such an endeavor is far more complex. The financial, legal, and logistical hurdles of identifying, apprehending, detaining, and expelling over 11 million undocumented immigrants are staggering. Beyond the operational challenges, the economic fallout from mass deportation would be profound, affecting employment, consumer prices, public finances, and even the broader U.S. economy.
Is Trump’s Mass Deportation Promise Feasible?
The scale of this operation goes far beyond anything the U.S. has undertaken before. According to the American Immigration Council (AIC), deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants would require building 216 new detention facilities annually for over a decade, each housing 500 people. The cost of constructing and operating these facilities alone would amount to $66 billion per year. A large-scale deportation operation aiming at removing one million individuals annually—as Vice President Vance has suggested—would cost an average of $88 billion annually, for a total cost of $967.9 billion over more than a decade.
Even if the government could overcome the financial and logistical challenges, it would face significant legal and political obstacles. Immigration courts are already overwhelmed, with a backlog of 3.6 million cases as of 2024. Trump’s proposals to expand expedited removal processes—allowing for the swift deportation of undocumented immigrants who cannot prove they’ve been in the country for over two years, without a court hearing—face strong legal challenges. Critics argue this undermines due process and violates constitutional rights.
Adding to the complexity, many local jurisdictions have implemented sanctuary policies, refusing to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement efforts, further complicating the ability to carry out mass deportations.
Why Is Mass Deportation Not Just Impractical but Also Economically Damaging?
The economic consequences of mass deportation would be far-reaching. Undocumented immigrants play a vital role in the U.S. economy, particularly in agriculture, construction, and hospitality industries. Approximately 8.3 million undocumented immigrants were part of the U.S. workforce in 2022, representing about 6% of the labor force. Removing even a fraction of these workers would have ripple effects across the economy.
Mass deportation advocates claim it would boost wages and job opportunities for American citizens, but the evidence suggests otherwise. In fact, it would harm employment outcomes and reduce wages for American workers. Undocumented immigrants and native-born workers often fill complementary roles rather than competing for the same jobs. For example, a study on the Obama-era Secure Communities program, which deported over 400,000 undocumented immigrants, found that instead of improving job prospects, it reduced wages and caused 44,000 native-born job losses.
Similarly, a recent study projects that future mass deportations would cause a permanent 3.6% drop in employment. This is because undocumented immigrants are crucial to production, particularly in agriculture, where they form nearly 40% of the workforce and fill jobs often avoided by Americans, even at higher wages. During COVID-19, for instance, just 337 U.S. citizens applied for 100,000 seasonal farm positions. Removing millions of workers would hurt farms—particularly dairy and poultry operations, which cannot rely on guest-worker visas— leading to higher food prices for American consumers.
Mass deportations would also push up housing costs, as undocumented workers make up 15% of the construction workforce, crucial for maintaining the housing supply. With rising interest rates already straining the market, further labor shortages could worsen supply-chain disruptions and increase construction costs. Although deportations should mean less housing demand, a study by Troup Howard found that deportations under Obama worsened housing shortages and led to higher home prices, as the supply-side impact of lost labor dominated the fall in demand.
The fiscal impact is also significant—undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in taxes in 2022 while being ineligible for most federal benefits. However, their contributions extend beyond direct tax contributions. Immigrants boost labor supply and economic output, generating taxable income and business profits. The Congressional Budget Office projects migration could reduce federal deficits by $900 billion from 2024 to 2034, meaning mass deportation would shrink the tax base and harm public finances.
The economic fallout from mass deportation would ripple far beyond specific sectors or regions. According to estimates from the Peterson Institute, removing 8.3 million undocumented workers could lead to a 7.4% reduction in U.S. GDP by 2028, increase inflation by 3.5 percentage points, and decrease employment by 6.7%. By comparison, the Great Recession from 2007-2009 caused a 4.3% GDP decline, highlighting the severity of such a scenario.
Beyond the economic consequences, the social toll would be immense. Approximately 66% of undocumented immigrants have lived in the U.S. for over a decade, and 4.4 million U.S.-born children reside with at least one undocumented parent, illustrating deep community ties and long-term residence. U.S.-born children, as citizens, cannot legally be forced to leave the country, creating painful choices for families faced with deportation orders. Parents often face detention and legal battles that disrupt children’s stability, mental health, and education, leaving them with lasting scars.
Conclusion
The idea of mass deportation may appeal to those seeking a simple solution to complex immigration challenges, but the reality is far more complicated. The financial, legal, and logistical hurdles are immense, and the economic and social consequences would be severe. Rather than pursuing punitive and impractical policies, the U.S. must have a comprehensive immigration reform that addresses the root causes of unauthorized migration while recognizing the vital contributions of immigrants to the economy.
Photo by Hanson Lu
