Introduction
Keir Starmer, the UK’s Prime Minister, wants a ‘re-set’ in the UK’s relations with the EU. About what? Starmer has said that he cannot envisage the UK rejoining either the Customs Union, the Single Market or the EU itself in his lifetime.1 That means the UK cannot adopt the euro, or become part of the guarantee arrangements for the debts of member states2 or for off-balance-sheet financing schemes.3 However, his party’s ‘Rejoiners’ will not settle for less, which presents Starmer with a dilemma.
The ’Rejoin’ campaign
‘Remainers’ attempted to delay the implementation of the result of the 2016 Brexit Referendum.4 Now ‘Rejoiners’ attempt to highlight the supposed failings of Brexit (as if they were not attributable to the spoiling campaigns mounted by ‘Remainers’ and ‘Rejoiners’) and to push for re-entry.
Starmer agrees that the UK should not have left the EU, but the dangers of embarking on a pathway to ‘Rejoin’ are many. It would stop the UK acceding to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.5 The CPATPP could bring in a lot of money, and Labour need it. Overturning a referendum only eight years after the first one smacks of the EU approach of re-running referenda until the voters give the EU-preferred answer.6 Calls for independence referenda every ten years for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Shetland Islands etc. would become irresistible. Overturning a referendum other than by another one could lead to civil war.
The Windsor Framework
There have been negotiations between the UK and the EU since Brexit, mainly about the arrangements between the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, whereby the Northern Ireland Protocol to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement was deemed unsatisfactory.
The updated version – the Windsor Framework – has solidified the internal border between Northern Ireland and the rest in the UK, and now a Private Member’s Bill is to be debated in the Westminster Parliament, tabled by the Northern Ireland MP Jim Allister and aimed at reversing the Windsor Framework and the Northern Ireland Protocol. This demonstrates that there is a pull for a ‘re-set’ in the opposite direction to the one Starmer wishes.
Erasmus, orchestras and solo artists, and scientists
The re-set is certain to bring reintegration with the Erasmus study programme, allowing students to study in one another’s countries, and a re-instatement of the travel and baggage rights of individual artists and groups. The UK already agreed to rejoin the Horizon Europe funding programme for a scientific research.
These count as good for publicity but are ‘small potatoes’ in their substance.
Sunak’s government was also on the way to rejoining PESCO, the EU defence alliance,7 justified firstly by the threat from Russia, and secondly by the chance that Donald Trump might de-fund the US commitment to NATO if the all NATO members do not meet the current
minimum defence spend of 2% of their Gross Domestic Product, and possibly more. This is more substantial and Starmer will no doubt claim it for himself, along with Erasmus, Horizon and the concert tours.
Issues liable to inflame UK public opinion but delight ‘Rejoiners’
Starmer needs a lot more than that to placate his ‘Rejoiners’, at least until the 2029 General Election. The issues eligible for placating ‘Rejoiners’ are ones that would enrage and galvanize Brexiteers:
- Granting fishing rights to EU fishermen in UK waters;
- Reinstituting Freedom of Movement for EU citizens into the UK;
- Accepting an allocation of people into the UK who have entered the EU illegally (citing the European Convention on Human Rights in which Starmer and his entourage are true believers, whilst politicians on the UK Right would leave it);
- Extending the ultimate jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice into further subjects and areas beyond Northern Ireland, via the other three.
Money
The UK will pay to rejoin Horizon and PESCO, but need not spend money to obtain a Free Trade Agreement with the EU as the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement contains one.
All of the main players are short of money, liable to become even shorter of it, and not able to rely on one another’s capability to pay.
The UK’s public finances are headed into crisis.8 France’s are in one.9 Germany appears to be on a similar trajectory but starting from a more favourable baseline.10
The UK ought not to unnecessarily align itself with an economic area that became subject to US import tariffs upon the inauguration of Donald Trump, and Starmer has already stated that he would not ‘take sides’, whatever that means.11
Against that background, why should any of the parties decide to get more closely into bed with one another at the present time?
Summary and conclusions
The ‘Rejoiners’ in Starmer’s administration are unlikely to be satisfied with what Sunak put into the pipeline and minor adjustments on top.
However, anything that smacked of more immigration risks a repeat of the near-breakdown of law and order in the summer of 2024.
The extension of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will not bring people onto the streets, but giving away the UK’s fishing rights might do, and Starmer already has the farmers on the streets after tax changes in the recent Budget.
As a skilled lawyer Starmer will find a form of words to pretend that his initiatives, whatever they turn out to be, do not represent a betrayal of Brexit or a breach of promises made for the 2024 General Election manifesto.
But he needs to come to the British people with more than rhetoric and a warm glow, and explain what he got, what he gave away, and why on balance that is good for the UK. He will not want to repeat the failure of David Cameron to explain the benefits of the re-set Cameron had negotiated for the purposes of the Brexit Referendum. That failure cost Cameron his job.
1 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/britain-will-not-rejoin-eu-in-my-lifetime-says-starmer
2 Principally the European Stability Mechanism – https://www.esm.europa.eu/
3 The European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund, the European Central Bank, and the schemes mobilised through the EIB and EIF like InvestEU and the European Fund for Sustainable Development
4 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7960/
5 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uk-and-the-comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnershipcptpp
6 https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/
7 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9058/
8 https://en.irefeurope.org/publications/online-articles/article/the-uk-labour-partys-economic-approach-modern-supply-side/
9 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/france-confirms-2024-budget-deficit-seen-at-6-1-of-gdp
10 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/08/germany-coalition-odd-throuple-fiscal-policy-squabble
11 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy89x13xle5o
Photo by Rocco Dipoppa
