European Comparisons

For the French government, it is more than ever urgent to convince everyone that the State deficit is moving in the right direction and the public debt is sustainable. In the context of an uncertain future for the French credit rating triple A note, the present debate on the budget of the State for the coming year and the austerity measures it includes became a really hot issue. The initial project of budget for 2012 has been already adopted by the Financial Commission at the French National Assembly and is now being discussed by the deputies.

This article appeared in The Wall Street Journal

In next year’s French presidential elections, it seems increasingly likely that voters will be asked to choose between two types of statism: statism of the left and statism of the right. Over the weekend François Hollande won the final round of the Socialist Party primaries, handily besting party leader Martine Aubry, and is now set to face off against France’s ostensibly center-right president, Nicolas Sarkozy.

An excellent report published by the Finnish think-tank Libera Foundation offers a novel historical perspective on the development of the Swedish economy.Contrary to the commonly- held view, this report is explaining the success of the Swedish model is not due to the Welfare State. Rather, it is a Johny-come-lately: expansion of public welfare started only around 1970. By 1985, taxes exceeded 50% of GDP and by the mid 1990’s Sweden had dropped from one of the top positions to a mid-level rank in terms of wealth and economic growth.

Slovakia’s parliament became the first in the eurozone to vote against bailing out indebted economies. The final vote on approving new powers for the €440bn European financial stability facility failed with only 55 of the parliament’s 150 MPs voting in favour, causing the coalition government of Iveta Radicova to collapse. Slovakia is the last of the 17 eurozone countries to approve the “improved” rescue fund. The Slovak parliament will remain in session and is likely to hold a second vote. Nevertheless, Slovakia has really good reasons not to approve the EFSF.

The eurozone’s third-largest economy is being sucked deeper into the sovereign debt crisis, since one of the major credit rating agencies downgraded yesterday its credit rating. S&P downgraded Italy to “A/A-1” from a “A+/A-1+” grade because of “Italy’s weakening economic growth prospects”, with a negative outlook, meaning further downgrades are possible. The move – S&P’s first downgrade of Italy since 2006 – places S&P’s rating on Italy three notches below that of Moody’s, the rating agency that many had expected to cut first.

The French bank BNP Paribas published a disclaimer to this article signed by our Director of development Nicolas Lecaussin and published in the Wall Street Journal. The paper is mentioning the difficulties of some of the French banks, including BNP.

It seems that the forecast of a 3.5% decrease in Greece GDP in 2011 was too optimistic. The finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said last week that the output is likely…

The game of representative democracy is such that we constantly have to choose, not between policies, but between programs that are best seen as baskets of policies to be implemented if the candidate supporting that program is elected. The basket that the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, “sold” to his electors in 2007 was, as always, made of all kinds of policies. But there was one on which he particularly insisted on during the elections and that, in my opinion, brought him the support from many voters: the promise that, if he was elected, individuals who will work more will earn more. “Travailler plus pour gagner plus”– with those words, he was promoting a move away from a society in which the extra money you make is redistributed away from you. At least that’s the way many people understood it.

is the amount that a new austerity plan is supposed to save to Italian public finances. The plan aims to bring Italy’s public deficit down to 0.2% of GDP by…

After a huge transfer-loan of €110 billion last year, Greece is once again pending on EU-IMF charity in order to avoid default, or at least, to benefit from a smooth default (assuming such a thing exists). Meanwhile, the Greek economy is paralyzed and tensions grow inside Greece as well as in other EU member states.