Publications

For some years, they have been the undisputed queens of political talk shows, the master key used by most commentators to explain the whatever. There was no election in which they did not make their triumphal appearance: The «leave» won at Brexit? Fault of fake news! Trump becomes president? The same! True, fake news, a catch-all term referring to intentionally fabricated information characterized by politically charged content, suffered a first backlash in conjunction with the 2019 European elections, where the expected populist tide ultimately failed to come about. But with Joe Biden at the White House the miracle seems to have materialised: all of a sudden, fake news and their thaumaturgical role in influencing the vote vanished (or almost did).

In the last European elections, the so-called green parties won a record number of seats and became the fourth largest bloc in the European parliament. The Greens are now seen as pivotal political allies for passing EU legislation.

Not surprisingly, climate issues have become central to the EU decision-making. As soon as she took office, President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the European Green Deal, a set of initiatives aiming at making Europe climate-neutral by 2050. However, the deal has already faced criticism and generated tensions between the greener western half of the Continent and the coal-dependent east, between corporations and NGOs, and also between the EU and its trading partners.

Jabs are the way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK, US, and Israel have made much progress with their vaccination programmes. In continental Europe, however, life-saving vaccine doses are scarce – partly due to the EU’s unfortunate purchasing policy. In light of the scarce vaccines and of the suffering caused by the virus, it is necessary to distribute the existing doses efficiently. It is becoming increasingly evident that the first shot already offers high protection against serious illness and frequently avoids fatal consequences. All existing doses should thus be used to distribute first shots and provide basic protection to as many people as possible.

What is PEPP?

In March 2020, the ECB and European Commission announced the inception of PEPP as a ‘non-standard monetary policy measure’ to deal with the risks to monetary transmission posed by the pandemic. It is in fact the eighth eurosystem bond buying programme. Three of these have been discontinued but there are four presently running:

In a previous article, we pointed out a number of technical problems related to the Digital Euro (DE) and the expected benefits for the users. To make a long story short, the costs and risks of the project seem greater than the benefits. We now add some thoughts about the ECB monetary policy.

The ECB does not give the impression it has a clear view about how to inject DEs into the economy. Moreover, it is mired in deciding how to acquire assets to hold against the DEs it will be issuing. Buying bonds from banks and paying them with DEs is an option. However, it would run against the ECB’s intention to limit the use of DE to individuals.

The European Central Bank is working on her own digital currency: the Digital Euro (DE). Several details are provided in the specific ECB report. There are still many technical problems to solve and structural choices to make before implementing DE. Yet, some features seem clear. DE would be a new technology to use the euro, and will present both cash and deposit-money features. Three sets of reasons back the project. It aims at improving the public payment system on the user’s side; improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and protecting the transmission mechanism; answering some strategic and geopolitical concerns. The first set of issues is discussed in this contribution. A following article will examine the remaining topics.

Occasional sleeping in a shared flat; getting a lift from the airport to the city centre; moving house with the help of a bunch of students – an increasing number of people uses the diverse, often inexpensive offers of digital platforms such as Airbnb, Uber, or TaskRabbit. Although the economic significance of such digital platforms is still modest, the demand for deliveries has surged during the pandemic and it may further rise in the future.

Tourism positively affects the balance of payments, attracts new foreign direct investment and is key to stimulating economic development and cultural change in many countries. Its contribution to alleviating poverty is also significant. For every job directly created in the sector, about 1.5 additional jobs are created. In 2019, approximately 330 million workers were employed in the tourism industry worldwide. This amounts to about 10.3% of total global employment (6.9% in OECD countries).

Late in March Archegos Capital, a New York based hedge fund, collapsed and triggered significant losses for its funding banks. The two most exposed lenders are Credit Suisse, who expect to lose $4.7 billion, and Nomura ($2 billion), but the combined losses of all its banks is estimated at $10 billion. These losses are net of $10 billion of Archegos’ cash which banks held as collateral, so total Archegos losses are $20 billion. Regulators had no idea of these exposure levels.

Pundits from all quarters harshly criticized the German Federal Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe after its judgment of last 5 May 2020.

The Court raised constitutional complaints in regard to the Bundesbank’s approval of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). According to the Court, PSPP potentially violated the principle of proportionality, and thus jeopardized the ability of the ECB (and thus of the Bundesbank) to achieve its price stability mandate. In June 2020, the ECB provided the Karlsruhe Court with documents including detailed considerations on proportionality behind PSPP. Even though these documents met the requirements of the Karlsruhe Court, the ECB will nonetheless be forced to consider the issue of proportionality much more carefully when purchasing government bonds in the future.