Crisis

Ladies and Gentlemen, please welcome to the stage Dutch Disease, 2nd edition. This time it’s not natural wealth that makes you poor, it’s a natural consequence of a poor policy.

According to the latest statistics, the economic growth in the United Kingdom has reached 3% (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2013. This is the highest rate since 2007. For comparison, the French growth was 0.3% yoy (2013).

The quality of the recovery remains questionable. In the meanwhile, banks must deal with new regulation and investors look for higher yields.

European growth stutters along as fear of deflation exerts pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy further.

The statistics tell us that recession is over. Yet, while this has triggered tapering in the USA, it has also prompted a new of ECB promises to keep interest rates low. In the meantime, EU authorities do not seem how to deal with the world of banking, which is far weaker than meets the eye.

More taxation, more banking supervision, more bail-in than bail-out, more banking malpractice… This month newsletter summarizes the trends that are leading the banking world.

According to the Harris Interactive poll for Le Figaro daily and LCP television, French President Hollande would not be reelected in 2017. His fiscal policies are highly criticized and would cost him his reelection. It seems that Holland is discovering this principle : the more taxes, the less votes. Yet, if he is not reelected, what would be next?

Something is rotten in the European Union! It looks like a hide and seek game, where countries and banks are playing a very dangerous game for the citizens’ future. Thus, between political instabilities, stealthy defaults, unhealthy and reckless banks and a real estate market that is artificially boucing back, there are many concerns about the EU’s future.

Reforming is a path for reelection: German Chancellor Angela Merkel privatized, deregulated, capitalized. She did not reflate nor accepted deficits : she reduced taxes. For sure, there are some lessons to learn for France.

In the two months since we last reported, the media has focussed on the rebound in the EU area, where in the second quarter GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.1%. The atmosphere has been optimistic, so optimistic, that even the Aug 20 confirmation by Germany’s Finance Minister Schaueble that Greece will default again caused barely a ripple. Even the stock market wobbles over fears of military conflict with Syria were muted (Dow Jones down 4.4% in August). The roundly castigated term “austerity” has appeared only rarely. When it does get a mention it is always used pejoratively, to explain why certain countries continue to have problems. For example, Portugal’s July announcement that it needs to renegotiate its 2011 bailout package is blamed on previously implemented austerity.