John Butler

Questionable business models in Fintech have been exposed, as predicted, in response to rising interest rates.  In Europe, the UK and US, rates have risen from near zero levels at…

Ratings Agencies take notice of deteriorating finances Debt ratings agencies may not have the power they used to possess before the 2008 global financial crisis, but they still carry influence.…

Introduction – Bulgaria’s recent announcement On 17 February, Bulgarian finance minister Rositza Velkova announced that, rather than continue as planned with the full, formal adoption of the euro on 1…

There was universal relief in the UK and international media at the demise of Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss and her replacement by the man she had recently defeated in…

China devalued its currency by 3%. Financial markets responded disproportionately, but we explain that it is quite understandable, given government policies in the rich countries.
We then investigate the devaluation’s effect on the US and EU financial markets as well as on the currencies of emerging markets.

Ultra Low Interest Rates have destabilized the global Economy whose capital markets now show signs of Illiquidity.

Stress testing of banks by central banking authorities has come to prominence as reliance on the traditional accounting standards has waned. Europe’s banking system was successfully stress tested last October, but we were not impressed.

As the US vs European recovery story swings our way, what lessons can Europe learn from the strong swing to the centre right in Britain’s elections? Is there a possibility of Brexit?

Banks have been hit with more fines, but more importantly, also with Criminal Convictions. Is this banking out of control because it has been deregulated? Is it fair to call the regulatory changes “deregulation”?

Most media optimism, both in the US and Europe, continues to focus on the dizzy levels of stock and bond markets, but in our view these index levels have been driven up by professionals front-running QE in the US and Europe.

In the past month, a Bulgarian court appointed two experts to liquidate the assets of CCB (known also by its Bulgarian initials KTB). This marked the end of a rather remarkable story that began in June 2014, when the rest of the Eurozone banking system was enjoying a period of relative calm.

Bank for International Settlements has labelled the impact of recent European quantitative easing as “unprecedented”. Worrying effects are not only the negative interest rates, but also very high price volatilities of asset. This development may soon hit not only economic, but also legal and even political boundaries.

The Austrian federal state of Carinthia continues to suffer from its long engagement with the Alpe Adria bank, which actually predates the recent crisis. Instead of making a quick cut liquidation after a bail-in, it is hoping to recover some assets in a dragged out wind-down process. It is to be seen whether this prolonged exposition to further claims will prove successful.

The ECB’s deal with Greece still leaves it exposed. Despite the rhetoric that countries must get their own finances in order, the ECB’s sister agency has started work on a new programme of $319 bn of mutualised debt.

US banks all pass their stress tests. However, that is not necessarily reassuring. When central banks took over testing from ratings agencies, can they be trusted that they would reveal problems potentially leading to a premature panic? UK banking may have some problems to solve.