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Central banks play a prominent role in regulating modern economies. They enjoy a high reputation for their technical competence, and provide analyses and forecasts that influence the behavior of markets and the policymakers’ decisions, with emphasis on monetary policy. What if their forecasts are systematically biased?

Germany’s labour market is buzzing. The unemployment rate is currently close to 5%. Although the business cycle could cool down in the near future, the trend is not expected to reverse course in the coming years. In the long run, however, pessimism dominates. As automation intensifies, many observers expect an era of mass unemployment in which only highly-qualified skilled workers will have a regular employment contract. At the same time, baby boomers will retire, and the decreasing labour force might lead to a skilled labour shortage, lower growth rates and an overburdened welfare state.

Yet, empirical findings and theoretical arguments suggest that there will be neither mass unemployment, nor a dramatic skilled labour shortage. Moreover, these two problems will certainly not emerge together. Rather, the decrease in labour demand due to automation will be manageable, and partly absorbed by the simultaneously drop in the labour force. By contrast, increasing income inequality is more likely to become a key isuue.

For several decades, labour market experts and economists have been advocating what now seems to become real: in 2020, Germany’s new immigration act will come into effect. The ‘Skilled Immigration Act’ is supposed to make immigration of qualified, non-EU citizens significantly easier. In the future, qualified workers without academic degrees will have immigration opportunities which were previously open to university graduates only. Moreover, they will no longer be legally at a disadvantage compared to German nationals and EU citizens.

«From now on our nation’s answer to this great social challenge will no longer be a never-ending cycle of welfare: it will be the dignity, the power, and the ethic of work. Today we are taking an historic chance to make welfare what it was meant to be: a second chance, not a way of life…The new bill restores America’s basic bargain of providing opportunity and demanding in return responsibility».

«Would you be willing to donate one of your organs to an organ donation service immediately after your death?». This question was asked to a sample of Europeans through an Internet based enquiry promoted by the European Commission and completed in September 2006. It was included in a survey aimed at identifying the main problems in the area of organ donations and transplantations at the Community level. In 2014, the 2006 survey was followed up by a twin investigation concerning blood, cell and tissue donation.

In the new IREF working paper “Taxing Artificial Intelligences”, Julian Arndts and Kalle Kappner analyse the fiscal implications of the presence of artificial-intelligence (AI) machines in the production processes.

After the incredible Republican presidential primaries opened the path to the surprising, to say the least, Donald Trump Presidency in 2016, today the Democracy Party is involved in a quite similar situation. While three years ago there were 17 candidates at the Republican primaries (5 of them withdrew just before the primaries), now the Democratic Party has reached 25 candidates. Of course, not all of them appear to have a real chance of winning the primaries. Still, according to the latest RealClearPolitics.com survey average, there are at least seven candidates with a percentage larger than 2%. They are Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States under the Obama Presidency; the “eternal” Bernie Sanders; the surging (according to the latest polls) California Senator Kamala Harris; the Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren; the Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg; the media beloved Beto O’Rourke; and, finally, the New Jersey Senator Cory Booker.

While all of the former socialist economies have liberalised and strengthened their markets over the past two decades, they have failed to strengthen the rule of law (see Table 1). Under socialism, legal systems are not designed to protect the rights of individuals. Instead, they serve the interests of the political elite. To that end, judges, prosecutors, and other judicial officials are trained and expected to cater to those interests. Most worrisome, some of the former socialist economies have even seen the weakening of the rule of law in the last few years.

Over the last few decades, our living standards have improved significantly. Today, cars are technologically sophisticated, apartments are comfortable, and pharmaceuticals are safer. The working of the markets has enhanced…

Despite plenty of terrifying predictions about populist coalition victory and its consequences, the latest European election provided a rather different outcome. No tsunami materialized, no earthquake. Nothing that would wipe-out…