Followers of US monetary policy are raising concerns about the consequences of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to reverse the 17% growth in the money supply (M21) in the two-year period…
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New task bolted on to European Stability Mechanism – with how much extra risk?
Introduction The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will now be backstop-of-last-resort to the Eurozone banking system, in addition to backstopping the Eurozone member states and the currency itself. Its resources have…
Bulgaria Has Postponed its Entry into the Eurozone. What Does this Mean?
Introduction – Bulgaria’s recent announcement On 17 February, Bulgarian finance minister Rositza Velkova announced that, rather than continue as planned with the full, formal adoption of the euro on 1…
Croatia has Joined the Eurozone. Let’s Look at the Upside, with also a little Caution
Introduction – Recent ECB Policy Developments Croatia became the 20th Eurozone member on January 1. Regular readers know our often expressed view that the euro is a deeply flawed currency…
To what Extent Can the ECB Override Financial Markets?
Towards the end of August, every year investors focus on the Jackson Hole conference of the central banking global elite. Given widespread acceptance among central bankers that non-temporary inflation is…
This article analyses the disparity between the substance of what was announced and the language put around it by the ECB, mainly in the press release on its Monetary Policy…
Ladies and Gentlemen, please welcome to the stage Dutch Disease, 2nd edition. This time it’s not natural wealth that makes you poor, it’s a natural consequence of a poor policy.
June’13 Newsletter: New Members Join The European Union, While Bail-Outs And Banking Regulation Are Questioned
Welcome to the clubs! Why should they join? The crisis is not over and doubts about the virtues of the EU and the euro abound. It may therefore seem surprising…
Despite being bombed by information, it seems we have forgotten the roots of the debt crisis. Instead we play a martingale game, where the only precaution after losing a round is to double the bet for the next one. The solution is not called EFSM, EFSF, ESM, SMP, OMT or banking union. These are just different names for a single problem: diluted responsibility. Unless we find a way to make local politicians pay locally for local promises, the euro project will be always in trouble.
In March 2010, when the Greek debt crisis was heating up, then-ECB president Jean Claude Trichet declared to the EU parliament that the “monetary Union in Europe is far more than a monetary arrangement. It is a union of shared destiny”. Less than two months later the ECB reversed its refusal to monetize debt and openly started buying government bonds in violation of its own charta. Germany also gave up its reservations about bailing out other countries. A first aid deal for Greece was signed and, because that didn’t help for long, a Euro rescue package to the tune of € 750 billion was put in place.