Globalization

After the fall of the Iron Curtain, comparing political and economic system appeared to have become a futile exercise. Western democracies had outperformed the socialist-communist social systems. Yet, thirty years later we see that no “End of History” has occurred, and that the fundamental question of economic systems is back. Despite being an authoritarian one-party state, China has become a global economic and military superpower. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the rigorous action taken by the Chinese government is sometimes praised as effective and superior to that of the West.

Although we live today in an interconnected global economy, where international trade is the norm, and most of the products we use daily are manufactured abroad, agriculture remains one of the most protectionist industries. All over the world, the agriculture sector is heavily subsidied and protected by governments from foreign competition. For example, in the United States, 20 billion dollars are allocated from the federal budget every year to subsidize the agricultural sector, while Europe gives 72 billion dollars every year in support of the agricultural industry. Today, due to these subsidies, several trade disputes keep the World Trade Organization (WTO) busy.

WP 2020-06.

WP 2020-05.

In recent years, the word “populism” has been everywhere. The first figure shows the rising use of the term by considering the frequency with which it was googled over the 2004-2020 period. As one can see, the US Presidential elections raised considerable interest. Queries reached a peak at the beginning of 2017, when Donald Trump took office. A burst of interest in populism also went hand in hand with Jair Bolsonaro’s political fortunes in Brazil. He was indeed depicted by the International Press and by many neutral observers as an ultra-right-wing populist, who took the presidency of the world’s fourth-largest democracy by virtue of people’s frustration, disillusion and anger.

While Europe’s GDP declines (12.1% in the Eurozone and 11.9% in the EU) and the debate on the EU next 7-year budget becomes heated, the relations between specific countries and the EU went largely unnoticed. The fact in point is that on July 10, the ECB welcomed Bulgaria and Croatia to the ERM2, aka as “the Euro’s Waiting room”.

Coronavirus has spread quickly across the globe. As a result, healthcare systems in several industrialised countries have been pushed to and beyond the verge of collapse. The virus has now also reached poorer countries in Africa. Although it spreads rather slowly there and hits a younger population, it is feared that people in poorer countries will be hit particularly hard considering the relatively ill-equipped healthcare systems. In these countries, healthcare does not meet Western standards. Yet, in recent years reveals significant improvements have taken place, and today most poor countries are better prepared for health challenges than they were 20 years ago. This also regards pandemics like the current one.

The literature has put forward two main arguments to explain the recent rise of populist parties and their electoral success. On the one hand, commentators have highlighted the rising level of uncertainty about the economy and grievances among the losers in global markets. Resentment, it is argued, has been susceptible to the anti-establishment message of populist movements and parties that blames ‘Them’ for taking away from “Us” prosperity, job opportunities, and public services from ‘Us’. On the other hand, authors have emphasised the role of culture and the backlash against long-term shifts in progressive and liberal social values. Such cultural backlash is especially strong among the older generation and less educated people, who suffer the displacement of familiar traditional norms and the rapid cultural changes that seem to be eroding the basic values and customs of Western societies. Other external shocks – such as the massive recent increase in immigration – are related to both explanations. Immigrants ‘compete’ against native low-wage, unskilled workers, and at the same time bring with them new values and behaviours that may be source of tensions with the residents in the destination countries.

WP 2020-02.

A pandemic is not only a biological event and a public health disaster, but it also generates impacts that are worth understanding from a societal, historical, and cultural perspective. In this contribution, we argue that as the disease spreads, we are able to harness a valuable key resource, namely people who have immunity to Corona. This vital resource must be employed effectively, it must be certified, it must be searched for, it must be found, and it may even be actively produced. We discuss why this needs to be done and how this can be achieved. Our arguments not only apply to the current pandemic, but also to any future rapidly spreading, infectious disease epidemics. In addition, we argue for awareness of a secondary non-biological crisis arising from the side effects of pandemic reactions. There is a risk that the impacts of the secondary crisis could outweigh that of the biological event from a health and societal perspective.

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When they introduced the euro, European governments were expecting that the new currency would rival the dollar on international markets. Twenty years later, the euro is still far behind on that account. A recent paper by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (Why is the Euro punching below its weight?, NBER Working Paper No. 26760, February 2020) investigates this issue, and shows that the advent of the European currency did little more than consolidating the pre-existing franc and deutsche mark zones.